ICICI Securities Limited Broker Research reports

Post relaxations in lockdown, green shoots were visible with renewed customer interest in kitchen appliances and cleaning segment as majority of people preferred home cooked food. Despite less than two-third of channels being operational, June sales rebounded strongly with sales reaching 90% of pre-Covid sales. The healthy trajectory sustained in July with revenues at 90%+ pre-Covid levels. As anticipated, revenues from e-commerce channel grew at the fastest rate with overall share now rising to 25% (from earlier ~12%). TTK is the market leader on e-commerce platform with margins and...

Reported GRMs during the quarter were at zero, lower than our estimate of US$3.8/bbl. Core GRMs were weak at -US$0.9/bbl while inventory loss was at US$0.9/bbl. Benchmark Singapore GRMs are currently at very low levels and marginal recovery was witnessed recently. Improvement in petrol & diesel spreads will be important for stable GRMs. We estimate GRMs at...

Consolidated revenue fell ~79% YoY mainly led by 81% and ~74% YoY fall in RAC and components and mobility business, respectively. RAC volume offtake declined ~81% YoY at ~2 lakh units during Q1FY21 mainly due to lockdown. However, retail demand for air conditioners improved in May & June 2020, especially from Tier 2 & Tier 3 cities. We believe RAC sales volume will recover from H2FY21 with ease in lockdown restrictions and...

Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) operating revenue for Q1FY21 fell 9.4% YoY to | 464.4 crore on account of a fall in transmission volumes. Transmission volumes fell 13% YoY to 33.3 mmscmd mainly due to lower CGD offtake. EBITDA came in at | 346.2 crore, down 13.9% YoY. Subsequently, PAT was...

AGL reported sales volume decline of 53.6% YoY for Q1FY21. The extended lockdown resulted in a sharp decline of 66.2% YoY in CNG sales at 0.3 mmscmd. Similarly, PNG sales registered a decline of 40% YoY to 0.4 mmscmd mainly due to fall in volumes in the industrial and commercial segment. Only domestic PNG segment registered growth at ~17% YoY. During the quarter, sales increased MoM from April lows and were at 1.1 mmscmd by June end. The management said sales volume further improved in July and were at ~1.4 mmscmd. Going forward, we estimate...

With the 2.8 lakh tonnes (lt) of exports this season & higher domestic sales quota, BCML has been able to liquidate excess inventory in last six months. It is holding 5.5 lt of sugar, which is not more than six months of sales. By the time next crushing season starts, it would be holding at best 1.5 months of sugar inventory compared to five month's industry average. This would enable BCML to generate strong cash flow in FY21 as well and further reduce working capital requirement. It would not require to take any working capital debt by December 2020 for new crushing season (starts from October)....

GIL is domestic market leader in automotive suspension segment (comprising products like front forks, shock absorbers, struts) commanding 25% market share in 2-W, 15% in PV and 75% in CV & Railways). The three divisions formed 67%, 20%, 12% of revenues in FY20, respectively. In months following Covid-19, domestic 2-W space has been doing relatively well, with dispatches at key OEMs ramping up in response to improving demand. Enhanced awareness around social distancing is expected to continue to benefit personal mobility vs. public transport that would benefit...

Organic revenues fell 4.4% YoY in Q1FY21 mainly led by ~10% YoY dip in organic cost per converted user (CPCU) revenues. CPCU revenues fell due to severe impact in April, May. However, Affle is seeing significant improvement in CPCU revenue in June quarter that has gone to average of | 1 crore/day. If we extrapolate this, it will lead to | 90 crore of organic CPCU revenues in Q2FY21E leading to organic growth of ~47% QoQ. Considering this organic revenue trajectory, acquisition of Appnext & Mediasmart will...

From April 1, the Railway Ministry revised the annual land licensing fee (LLF) norms for Concor (Indian Railway land on which ~25 Concor of total 64 terminals operate). The change should be seen in the backdrop of Concor's privatisation, as earlier mode of LLF payment provided certain advantage to the company vs. other private CTOs. Earlier method of payment was based on Concor's volumes and was, thus, variable in nature (| 1175/TeU). However, the revised mode of payment is fixed in nature (6% of value of land). This has caused LLF payment to jump from earlier | 120 crore paid in...